The 2024 presidential election could potentially lead to a scenario where the outcome is decided not by the Electoral College, but by the United States Congress. This possibility arises from the 12th Amendment to the Constitution, which outlines the procedure for electing the President and Vice President.
Understanding the 12th Amendment:
The 12th Amendment was ratified in 1804 to address issues that arose in earlier presidential elections, particularly the 1800 election. It clarifies how the Electoral College should vote and what happens if no candidate receives a majority of electoral votes.
The Scenario: No Electoral College Majority
The key provision of the 12th Amendment states that if no presidential candidate receives a majority of electoral votes (currently 270 out of 538), the House of Representatives chooses the President from among the top three candidates. Each state delegation gets one vote in this process.
Similarly, if no vice-presidential candidate receives a majority, the Senate chooses the Vice President from the top two candidates, with each senator having one vote.
How Could This Happen in 2024?
Several factors could lead to a scenario where no candidate secures an electoral majority:
- Close Races in Key States: If the election results in very tight margins in several key swing states, legal challenges and recounts could delay the certification of results, potentially leading to competing slates of electors being sent to Congress.
- Faithless Electors: While rare, it’s possible that some electors could vote for someone other than the candidate they pledged to support, further complicating the count.
- Third-Party Candidates: A strong showing by a third-party candidate could siphon off enough votes to prevent either major candidate from reaching 270.
The House and Senate’s Role:
If the election is thrown to the House, each state delegation casts one vote. This means that even though California has a much larger population than Wyoming, their votes in this scenario would carry equal weight. This could potentially favor the Republican party, as they currently control a majority of state delegations, even though they don’t control the overall House.
The Senate would then choose the Vice President, with each senator having one vote.
Historical Precedents:
This scenario is not entirely unprecedented. The House of Representatives has chosen the President twice in US history:
- 1800: The election between Thomas Jefferson and Aaron Burr was initially tied, leading to a contingent election in the House.
- 1824: Andrew Jackson won the most electoral and popular votes, but not a majority, leading to John Quincy Adams being chosen by the House.
Potential for Controversy:
If the 2024 election is thrown to Congress, it would likely be a highly contentious and politically charged process. The outcome could be subject to intense debate and legal challenges, potentially leading to a period of uncertainty and instability.
Conclusion:
While it’s still unlikely, the possibility of the 2024 election being decided by Congress highlights the importance of understanding the 12th Amendment and the potential complexities of the US electoral system. The coming months will be crucial in determining whether this scenario becomes a reality.
